Qualification scenariosGroup page

Group I qualification scenarios

Group I qualification scenarios tracks the current World Cup 2026 scenario, live qualification context, and related knockout paths.

Latest scenario update

2026-06-26

Generated from the current scenario dataset on 2026-06-27T06:19:40.366Z.

Group I snapshot

Current table: France 6 pts (+5 GD, advanced to round of 32); Norway 6 pts (+4 GD, advanced to round of 32); Senegal 0 pts (-3 GD, final match left); Iraq 0 pts (-6 GD, final match left).

France hold first place, Norway are in the second automatic slot, and Senegal are the main third-place reference point right now.

Relevant fixtures: Norway vs France (2026-06-26, 15:00 ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough); Senegal vs Iraq (2026-06-26, 15:00 ET, BMO Field, Toronto).
Norway W; Senegal W: Norway 1st; France 2nd; Senegal 3rd. Senegal 3 pts; needs third-place table help.
Norway W; Senegal-Iraq draw: Norway 1st; France 2nd; likely Senegal 3rd. Senegal 1 pt; almost certainly out.
Norway W; Iraq W: Norway 1st; France 2nd; Iraq 3rd. Iraq 3 pts; needs help and GD may be poor.

Current standings

Pos	Team	Pts	GD	Status
1	France	6	5	ADVANCED TO ROUND OF 32
2	Norway	6	4	ADVANCED TO ROUND OF 32
3	Senegal	0	-3	FINAL MATCH LEFT
4	Iraq	0	-6	FINAL MATCH LEFT

Remaining fixtures

Norway vs France

Group I

2026-06-26 | 15:00 ET

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Both already advanced; determines 1I/2I. Draw keeps France top on current GD.

Senegal vs Iraq

Group I

2026-06-26 | 15:00 ET

BMO Field, Toronto

Determines 3I. Winner has 3 pts; draw likely leaves Senegal third on GD.

Result path matrix

Norway W; Senegal W

Deterministic on points for top two

Direct effect: Norway 1st; France 2nd; Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 3 pts; needs third-place table help

Norway 9, France 6, Senegal 3

Norway W; Senegal-Iraq draw

GD likely keeps Senegal above Iraq

Direct effect: Norway 1st; France 2nd; likely Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 1 pt; almost certainly out

Norway 9, France 6

Norway W; Iraq W

Deterministic on points

Direct effect: Norway 1st; France 2nd; Iraq 3rd

Third-place effect: Iraq 3 pts; needs help and GD may be poor

Norway 9, France 6, Iraq 3

Norway-France draw; Senegal W

France top on current GD after draw

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 3 pts; needs help

France 7, Norway 7, Senegal 3

Norway-France draw; Senegal-Iraq draw

GD likely keeps Senegal above Iraq

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; likely Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 1 pt; out

France 7, Norway 7

Norway-France draw; Iraq W

France top on current GD after draw

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; Iraq 3rd

Third-place effect: Iraq 3 pts; needs help

France 7, Norway 7, Iraq 3

France W; Senegal W

Deterministic on points

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 3 pts; needs help

France 9, Norway 6, Senegal 3

France W; Senegal-Iraq draw

GD likely keeps Senegal above Iraq

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; likely Senegal 3rd

Third-place effect: Senegal 1 pt; out

France 9, Norway 6

France W; Iraq W

Deterministic on points

Direct effect: France 1st; Norway 2nd; Iraq 3rd

Third-place effect: Iraq 3 pts; needs help

France 9, Norway 6, Iraq 3

Third-place context

Group	Team	Pts	GD	Status	Notes
A	South Korea	3	-1	Can still advance	Known 3rd; not confirmed advanced
B	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	-1	Advanced	Confirmed 3rd-place qualifier; critical Annex C constraint
C	Scotland	3	-3	Can still advance	Known 3rd; not confirmed advanced
D	Paraguay	4	-2	Can still advance	Known 3rd; 4 pts but source does not mark confirmed
E	Ecuador	4	0	Advanced	Confirmed 3rd-place qualifier
F	Sweden	4	0	Advanced	Confirmed 3rd-place qualifier
G	Belgium	2	0	Current 3rd before final match	Group G still open; third team can change
H	Cape Verde	2	0	Current 3rd before final match	Group H still open; third team can change
I	Senegal	0	-3	Current 3rd before final match	Third team depends on Senegal vs Iraq
J	Algeria	3	-2	Current 3rd before final match	Third team depends on Algeria vs Austria and Jordan vs Argentina
K	DR Congo	1	-1	Current 3rd before final match	Third team depends on Colombia vs Portugal and DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
L	Croatia	3	-1	Current 3rd before final match	Third team depends on Croatia vs Ghana and Panama vs England

Related scenario pages

Use these links to move between group stakes, third-place logic, and the live Round of 32 map.

World Cup 2026 scenarios

Start at the main qualification and bracket hub

Round of 32 scenarios

Stay anchored to the main bracket hub

Group I guide

See the full group page and live table context

World Cup 2026 third-place table

Compare this group with the wider third-place race

Annex C explained

Understand how third-place routing changes opponents

France

Open the team card for group context

Senegal

Open the team card for group context

Iraq

Open the team card for group context

Norway

Open the team card for group context

Round of 32 hub Third-place table