Quick answer
Everton, Liverpool, and Manchester United headline the opening-six schedule by official FDR, while Bournemouth face the clearest early warning. Use the run as a shortlist, then layer in player role, minutes, team strength, captaincy, and the next transfer horizon before selecting a squad.
Fixture Difficulty Ratings are one of the cleanest ways to organise a first draft. They are also one of the easiest tools to misuse. A green run does not guarantee goals or clean sheets; it tells you where the schedule creates room for a good team and a secure player to deliver.
For the first six Gameweeks of 2026/27, the official FPL analysis puts Everton, Liverpool and Manchester United at the top with an average FDR of 2.8. Arsenal, Ipswich Town, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest follow at 3.0. At the other end, Bournemouth's 3.7 is the hardest opening-six average.
The opening-six fixture table
Best schedules
- Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United: two fixtures rated 2; average FDR 2.8.
- Arsenal, Ipswich, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest: two fixtures rated 2; average FDR 3.0.
Hardest schedules
- Bournemouth: three fixtures rated 4 or harder; average FDR 3.7.
- Coventry City, Leeds United: two fixtures rated 4 or harder; average FDR 3.5.
- Hull City: two fixtures rated 4 or harder; average FDR 3.3.
That is the schedule layer. Selection still needs three more filters: player role, expected minutes and whether the fixture favours attack or defence.
Liverpool: four useful fixtures before the first major test
Liverpool begin away to Newcastle, then face Nottingham Forest at home, Ipswich away and Fulham at home. Bournemouth away follows before Manchester City visit in GW6. The official ratings for that sequence are 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4.
Liverpool do not have six perfect fixtures. They do have a four-match opening without an opponent from last season's top ten, followed by a playable GW5. That is a run for an initial squad pick, not a one-week punt.
Liverpool decision
Prioritise players with secure roles and multiple routes to points. The schedule is strong enough to hold through one early blank, but GW6 against Manchester City is a sensible checkpoint rather than a reason to avoid Liverpool entirely.
Virgil van Dijk remains the clearest defensive route in the official analysis, while attacking selections require closer attention to pre-season roles. Use the defender guide and midfielder guide to compare price and role before doubling up.
Manchester United and Manchester City: captaincy matters
Both Manchester clubs sit among the best opening schedules. That matters most when assessing premium assets: a premium price is easier to justify when it comes with credible captaincy fixtures.
Bruno Fernandes and Erling Haaland are the official article's headline examples. If you pay for either premium, identify the weeks in which you are prepared to captain him. Otherwise, you may be buying an expensive player for a fixture advantage you never use.
“A good premium fixture run has value only if it changes your captaincy or lets you hold the player through six weeks.”
FootieGuide FPL Desk
Manchester City's attacking ceiling and United's schedule make both relevant from GW1. Defensive investment needs more caution: an easy opponent is not the same as a settled back line, and clean-sheet picks should still be checked against pre-season combinations and goalkeeper certainty.
Everton: good schedule, selective buying
Everton share the best average FDR at 2.8. That is enough to put their secure starters on the shortlist, particularly in positions where you need value rather than captaincy.
The sensible use of Everton's run is selective. One reliable defender or goalkeeper can cover the schedule without forcing a double-up on an attack that still needs to prove its ceiling. Jordan Pickford belongs in the goalkeeper conversation, but a kind run alone should not override team structure.
Arsenal and Nottingham Forest: strength meets schedule
Arsenal face only one of last season's top six in their first eight matches: a GW2 visit to Aston Villa. The official analysis highlights Gabriel after a 209-point season containing 18 clean sheets, three goals and five assists. A favourable schedule attached to an already elite defensive role is more persuasive than FDR alone.
Nottingham Forest also sit on a 3.0 opening-six average. Their first five include home matches against Leeds, Tottenham and Coventry, giving Morgan Gibbs-White — 15 goals, four assists and 188 points last season in the official preview — a strong platform.
Bournemouth: the clearest early warning
Bournemouth open away to Manchester City and also meet Liverpool and Chelsea within six Gameweeks. All three fixtures rate at least 4, producing the league's hardest opening-six average at 3.7.
Bournemouth players are not automatically unusable, but the bar is higher. An attacker needs a secure role, strong price and evidence of fixture-proof output; a defender needs more than the hope of an occasional clean sheet. Close calls should go to players with a kinder runway.
Coventry, Leeds and Hull: promoted-team risk compounds
Coventry visit Arsenal and Manchester City in the first three Gameweeks. Hull face Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle in their first five. Leeds join Coventry on a 3.5 average with two fixtures rated at least 4.
Promoted assets are often attractive because their prices solve a budget problem. The risk is stacking two uncertainties: adaptation to the division and a difficult schedule. Treat a £4.0m or £4.5m enabler as bench structure unless his role and early opponent make him genuinely startable.
When a hard fixture is acceptable
A cheap, nailed player can still be useful through a hard run if he protects squad value and rarely needs to start. The mistake is expecting that enabler to supply immediate points simply because he unlocks a premium elsewhere.
Turn six weeks into a GW1 squad
A useful first draft should survive more than opening weekend. Build around these rules:
- Use three horizons. Check GW1, GW1–3 and GW1–6 rather than one average alone.
- Separate attack from defence. A match can be attractive for goals without being attractive for a clean sheet.
- Plan premium captaincy. Know which opening fixtures justify the price.
- Limit planned transfers. Do not build a squad that already needs three repairs by GW3.
- Keep one exit route. If a target's role changes, know the same-price alternative.
- Refresh before the deadline. Fixtures can move, and availability can change after this article is published.
Our Fantasy hub brings the fixture view together with probable lineups and availability monitoring. Use it after selecting the broad team targets here; then consult the goalkeeper, defender, midfielder and forward guides for the actual player decisions.
FootieGuide's opening stance
- Target: Liverpool through GW5; Arsenal defensive coverage; a premium from the Manchester clubs when the captaincy plan supports it.
- Consider selectively: Everton value and Nottingham Forest's secure attacking roles.
- Demand a discount: Bournemouth, Coventry, Leeds and Hull assets expected to start regularly in your XI.
- Reassess: after the final pre-season team news, every major fixture reschedule and the first evidence of changed roles.
Sources and evidence boundary
Official fixture facts and FDR values were checked on 13 August 2026 against the Premier League's opening-six FDR analysis, 2026/27 FDR guide, and complete fixture list. The target hierarchy, squad-building rules and player-selection cautions are FootieGuide editorial analysis. Fixture dates and difficulty ratings should be rechecked before the GW1 deadline.